Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Find Fibonacci Support Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Published

7 år ago

5 juli, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– Gold technical strategy: Long-term mixed, Intermediate-term bearish, short-term bearish.

– FOMC Minutes are released later today at 2PM ET, and Friday brings Non-Farm Payrolls. The U.S. Dollar will likely remain volatile around these key events.

– IG Client Sentiment is currently showing +4.99 traders long for every one short, and given retail sentiments contrarian nature, this is bearish.

– If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. If you’re looking for shorter-term ideas or trading education, please check out our DailyFX Webinars.

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On Monday, we looked at the aggressive bearish run that’s taking place in Gold prices. Throughout Monday, that bearish move continued to develop, and prices ran down-below the $1,220-handle Gold dropped by the most in seven months – since the night of the U.S. Presidential election.

But mid-day on Monday, Gold prices found support at a key zone around $1,219. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-December 2016 major move, and the 50% marker of that same move helped to set resistance last week before the selling in Gold really heated up. This level had also helped to set the lows in Gold prices in early-May; and that’s right around the time that James Comey was fired, and Gold prices rallied all the way to his testimony in front of the Senate a month later. Around that testimony – Gold prices resisted at the April high to produce a double top formation – and since then Gold prices have been heavily offered through a litany of support levels.

Gold Daily Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Applied – Support Highlighted

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Is the Bearish Run Complete?

There is no evidence yet to suggest as such. There have been no clear shifts on a fundamental basis, nor have there been any technical events that would denote the end of the bearish trend. This would allow traders to move-forward with a bearish bias for Gold prices. IG Client Sentiment is currently showing +4.99-to-1, which is bearish given retail sentiment’s contrarian nature.

The matter of complication at the moment is the issue of re-entry. The remainder of this week brings some rather pertinent U.S. data with the release of FOMC minutes later this afternoon followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, and since Gold prices ran into support around $1,219, sellers have been unable to re-take control of price action. Add this to the fact that we had a fairly out-sized spill to begin the week, and we may need more of a pullback before short-side re-entry becomes attractive again.

On the hourly chart below, we’re looking at four potential resistance areas that can be used in the effort of bearish continuation. If price action breaks-above the swing-high around $1,259, the bearish approach will no longer be as attractive, and this can be an area to investigate for stop placement should the zone around the ‘r4’ level become tested.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form