Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Move Down to Trend-Line Support Ahead of BOE

Published

9 år ago

3 augusti, 2016

DailyFX

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

Talking Points:

Gold Technical Strategy: Bullish trend continues with price action near intermediate-term highs.
Gold prices have seen a near-term moderation of the up-trend, with price action moving down to short-term support.
If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you want something more short-term in nature, check out our SSI indicator.

In our last article, we looked at the continued up-trend in Gold as price action was attempting to carve out ‘higher-low’ support in front of the most recent FOMC rate decision. At the time of publishing, prices were working with the mass of support in the zone around the $1,315-neighborhood; but fears of a hawkish Fed in response to fresh all-time highs in equity prices kept price action subdued leading into the announcement. But when that statement came-out with only slight tweaks to the language, markets began to build-in the expectation for continued dovishness, under the premise that the Fed would likely continue to do what they’ve been doing (providing dovish support for global risk markets).

This was helpful for Gold prices, as price action shot up to resistance at $1,342 in short order; but it was the U.S. GDP announcement just two days later that really substantiated the trend. U.S. GDP came in far under expectations, further driving that hope for more dovish support from the Fed under the logic that the Federal Reserve likely wouldn’t be hiking rates in the face of slowing data.

Since then, we’ve seen extension of the up-trend in Gold prices with multiple iterations of higher-highs and higher-lows showing. As of now, price action in Gold is showing at an interesting level of potential support. The price of $1,354.87 is the swing-high that came into the market on the heels of that GDP announcement, and now this older form of resistance is showing at potential support. And also of interest is a trend-line projection that’s provided multiple intra-day support/resistance inflections since mid-July as the trend has re-emerged to the up-side (shown in purple below).

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

Just below this potential support level is the ‘higher-low’ that developed after that rush of strength on the heels of Friday’s GDP announcement at $1,346.05; and a bit lower at $1,342.19, we have the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year move in Gold prices.

Traders looking to enter long Gold positions in a more conservative manner would likely want to wait for either a) more confirmation of near-term support at our current level or b) a deeper retracement to one of these more widely-tested levels. For those that want to treat the move aggressively, each of these levels could be potential areas for stop-placement, with targets cast towards the near-term swing-high at $1,367, and then the prior near-term high at the psychological level of $1,375.04.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form