Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices: RSI Divergence as a Bevy of Headline Risk Awaits

Published

7 år ago

5 juni, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– Gold technical strategy: Long-term mixed, Intermediate-term bullish, short-term bullish.

– Gold prices put in a bullish break after Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report; but a series of market drivers over the next two weeks will likely keep Gold prices on the move.

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In our last article, we looked at the continued bullish run in Gold prices after another ‘higher-low’ point of support was set. But we also looked at a longer-term descending channel that may have offered some element of pause to the continued topside run, as the resistance trend-line of this channel had helped to turn around another strong, bullish move in mid-April.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As Non-Farm Payrolls came-in below expectations on Friday, another wave of USD-weakness hit global markets, and this catapulted Gold prices beyond this trend-line, and right into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent major bearish move (taking the July 2016 high down to the December 2016 low). This set of retracement levels is relevant, as the 38.2% retracement of that same move is what helped Gold prices to find support in early-May after the mid-April reversal.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

After price action burst-above the descending trend-line on Friday, prices trickled-higher until, eventually, they ran into this Fibonacci resistance at $1,278.74. Price action closed the week nestled just underneath this resistance area, only to re-open this week above, with support now showing at that prior level of resistance.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Given the veracity of the recent bullish move, and also considering the bullish break of the longer-term descending channel, traders would likely want to move forward with a bullish bias here. For those looking at bearish strategies, they’d probably want to wait until a bearish break of support at $1,278, at the very least, before looking to press down-side strategies.

The complication in lining up longer-term bullish setups at the moment would arise from the fact that the next two weeks present a significant amount of headline risk; and as has become usual with these types of macro-drivers, this will probably bring some continued volatility in Gold prices. This can also be opportunistic for gold bulls, as a down-side reaction in Gold prices to any of the upcoming drivers could bring on support that could open the door for bullish entries. The area around $1,274 could be particularly compelling for such an approach, as this is a prior swing-high that has yet to see any nearby support tests. Just below this level is another prior resistance swing around $1,269 that could be utilized as an ‘s2’ zone of support for bullish continuation plays. And between these two levels, we have the projection of that prior descending trend-line, and this could be usable as well as an example of ‘prior resistance helping to set new support’ in a burgeoning up-trend.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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