Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Run Towards Big Support at $1,200; Is a Break Imminent?

Published

9 år ago

18 november, 2016

DailyFX

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Gold Technical Strategy: Longer-term up-trend in question; $1,200 is major support.
The U.S. Dollar has been on a rampage, and this has kept pressure on Gold prices. There are likely a plethora of stops at or around $1,200, so expect a ‘blow-off’ move should this level become tested early next week.
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In our last article, we looked at Gold prices attempting to claw back from support. But as we noted, just below near-term support was a longer-term level that would likely exude some level of interest in the coming days at $1,200. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term move in Gold prices, taking the low of the Bretton Woods-fix at $35/ounce up to the 2011 high at $1,920. This level had provided swing-low support in Gold prices in May of this year, just ahead of another top-side extension that lasted for $175 of run over the next five weeks.

But since that high was set at $1,375, Gold prices have seen some pressure build. First producing a downward sloping channel that came-in as a bull flag formation. But in early October, as Loretta Mester started talking up the prospect of near-term rate hikes, the Dollar strengthened, Gold prices fell and support became a moving variable around the $1,250-level.

Gold prices’ sensitivity to the Greenback was well-illustrated on the night of U.S. Presidential Elections. As the Greenback dropped when initial polls began to come-in, Gold prices spiked higher to find resistance at $1,337. But around Midnight Eastern Time, the Dollar began to reverse and this drove Gold prices lower, eventually running back down to that $1,250 level that had served as support in October.

But Dollar strength hasn’t yet calmed. The Dollar has run-up to fresh 14-year highs, and Gold prices have continued to dwindle near long-term support values. At $1,210.85 we have the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Dec 15 low to the July high, and this had previously set swing-low support for Gold prices. But as we noted in our last article, it’s the $1,200 level that’s likely going to be garnering traders’ attention in the weeks ahead.

Given the continued persistence of sellers to hit virtually any rip-higher here, traders would likely want to wait for that ‘big’ support level at $1,200 to be tested before looking to line up long positions. Given the amount of stops that are likely around that level, should a break come-in, a quick move lower should be expected; perhaps driving as low as $1,180 before buyers might be able to turn the tide. If this happens, traders can wait for prices to drive back up above $1,200 to prove that bulls may be able to re-take control.

If price action breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Dec low to the July high at $1,172, traders will likely want to re-evaluate the bullish stance in Gold prices.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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