Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Sink to Seven Week Low as Big Week for the Buck Begins

Published

7 år ago

3 juli, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– Gold technical strategy: Long-term mixed, Intermediate-term bearish, short-term bearish.

– IG Client Sentiment is currently showing +3.63 traders long for every one short, and given retail sentiments contrarian nature, this is bearish.

– If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. If you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, check out our IG Client Sentiment.

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In our last article, we looked at the continued down-trend in Gold prices after last Monday’s bearish breakout. And just like last Monday, this week has opened with another fresh Seven-week low showing in Gold, and just as we advised last Monday – traders will likely want to avoid chasing the move and, instead, let prices work back towards resistance so that risk can be more properly appropriated.

One significant reason for caution is the fact that the U.S. Dollar is likely going to be on the move this week. Tomorrow is Independence Day in the United States, and traders return on Wednesday to the release of FOMC meeting minutes from the bank’s rate decision in June followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. And given the pronounced down-trend that’s been seen in the Greenback of late, with fresh 10-month lows printing on Friday just ahead of the close of Q2 – there will likely be considerable focus on these drivers as traders attempt to read the tea leaves around what the Fed might be doing in the second half of the year.

This is relevant for Gold prices given the fact that the continued sell-off in the Dollar has failed to inspire any lasting strength in Gold: While the U.S. Dollar drove down to 10-month lows, Gold prices continued to sell-off to fresh seven-week lows, and this speaks to the rising inflation expectations being seen globally after last week’s comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President, Mario Draghi. This can keep Gold prices moving-lower even, with USD-weakness, and traders can continue to move-forward with a down-side bias for Gold prices.

The matter of entry is a bit more of a challenge given that we’re sitting very near the lows, but as we looked at last Monday when Gold prices had run-lower, we can incorporate prior support swings to help in seeking out ‘lower-high’ resistance for bearish continuation approaches. On the chart below, we look at four such areas, two of which were included as part of our strategy in last Monday’s article, and can certainly be re-used and incorporated for bearish continuation approaches.

Gold Hourly Chart with Potential Resistance Levels Applied

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form