Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Slide Down the Slope of Despair

Published

8 år ago

8 mars, 2017

DailyFX

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Gold Technical Strategy: Near-term: Aggressively bearish.
Gold prices have been in retreat over the past week as odds for a March rate hike from the Fed have flown-higher.
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In our last article, we asked if bulls in the Gold market were in the early process of retreat. At the time, rate hike expectations for the United States were steadily increasing for the upcoming March meeting, taking place next Wednesday. Previously, it didn’t’ appear as though Gold prices were buying the Fed’s rate hike plans. But as various members of the bank got more vociferous on the subject of rate hikes, starting with John Williams of the San Francisco Fed just hours before Donald Trump’s Joint Address to the Union; and it appears as though the Gold market has awoken to the reality of a persistently hawkish Fed. We pointed out a prior level of support at $1,250, which was the same level that came-in as support on the night of Brexit; as potential resistance for short-term momentum.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Since then, Gold prices have gotten crushed; moving from a swing-high above $1,250 just a week ago to below $1,210 as of this writing to tally a total move of -3.3% in a single week. To be sure, there is prime motivation for such a theme which is likely why we’ve seen such little respect of support as Gold prices have been on the way down. With a key Fed meeting next week in which the world may get just the 3rd rate hike from the bank in the past 10 years, the table is set for a continuation of USD-strength and few traders have wanted to stand in the way of the move-lower in Gold prices.

So there is legitimate continuation potential here for further bearish momentum. For traders looking to gain such exposure, resistance at the $1,215.17 area could be extremely attractive for such a scenario. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move in Gold prices, but perhaps more importantly this level has come as pertinent to price action over the past few months.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Support could be a challenge here given that prices have been dropping like they’re attached to an anvil. $1,200.51 is a big level as the 38.2% retracement of the ‘big picture’ move in Gold prices, taking the Bretton Woods fix of $35/oz up to the 2011 high at $1,920. This had also offered some support to price action’s bullish move last year; but given that this is just $10 away from current price, it could be difficult to imagine all of this bearish momentum coming to a standstill as soon as $1,200 comes into-play. But below $1,200 are a series of interesting levels that traders can investigate for those next potential iterations of support. Please note that these levels have been ‘widened-out’ to account for next week’s abundance of drivers, which can keep price action in Gold volatile in the near-term.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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