Analys från DailyFX

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: How Long Can 2017 Lows Hold?

Published

7 år ago

25 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY continues to wilt, but the process has stalled, at least for the short term
The bulls are making a fight of it around the lows for the year, as well they might given the drop below
AUD/JPY meanwhile remains bizarrely somnolent

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The Japanese Yen’s ascendency against the US Dollar this year is all-too obvious.

USD/JPY has in fact been in a broadly unchallenged downtrend since mid-December 2016 when the Dollar-supportive exuberance of the so-called “Trump trade” started to wane. Within that there has of course been movement, but the greenback is currently trapped in a further, shorter-term down channel which began in mid-July. You can see both trends clearly on this weekly chart.

However, while there is yet no sign of any definitive shift in the two currencies’ relative fortunes, USD/JPY could be in for at least a short period of consolidation. The bears’ ambitions are currently constrained by a band of support which stretches from June 14’s intraday low of 108.80 down to April’s 17’s low of 108.12. That latter level is especially significant as it is also USD/JPY’s low point for the year so far.

To stray for a moment into more fundamental matters, the current bout of defensive trade coincides neatly with the approach of the Jackson Hole central banking symposium. Given this its reasonable to assume that markets are looking for at least relative optimism from Federal Reserved Chair Janet Yellen, and perhaps some assurance that US monetary policy will tighten at least one more time.

If these are duly delivered, it’s also reasonable to assume that USD/JPY’s lows for the year will continue to hold, even if they don’t seem likely to become a springboard for a more solid recovery.

One currency which has been notably torpid of late is the Australian Dollar, and this is at least as evident against the Yen as anything else. The Aussie has slipped from its highs from the year, but it hasn’t fallen very far. It has also confined itself to a surprisingly narrow trading range, at least on a daily-close basis, for the last two weeks.

Relative comfort at altitude suggests that the Aussie remains a currency that traders would like to buy and hold. However, it looks as though a very gradual downtrend remain in place for the moment, and will do so unless the cross can regain the highs of early August.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form