Analys från DailyFX

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Weakness On Hold, Not Dispelled

Published

7 år ago

27 september, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY has been loitering around its recent highs
In the process, it has fallen out of an uptrend channel
Bulls still appear to be driving though

Just getting started in the Japanese Yen trading world? Our beginners’ guide is here to help

The Japanese Yen has shown some signs of composure against the US Dollar in recent days, but there is little reason to think that that will endure.

USD/JPY had climbed quite sharply back up from September 8’s 107.30 intraday low – which is also the nadir for 2017 so far. But climbers appeared to lose heart last week having scaled the 112.70 area which appears to be at least a short-term cap. The greenback has been loitering below it for the past five days, to the point where it is outside an uptrend channel which had held since that 107.30 low.

So, is this a mere pause for breath on the part of US Dollar bulls or is the Yen about to stage any sort of comeback. Well, at least one omen would seem to favour ‘option A’ there. September 20’s bullish moving-average crossover was in its infancy when I last looked at the Japanese Yen. But it has endured, matured and now looks a lot more convincing. For the uninitiated in moving-average arcana, it’s held to be a good sign for bulls when a shorter average crosses above a longer one. This happened last week when the 20-day crossed above the 50-, where it remains.

The pair remains above all three averages, too. Of course, no indicator is utterly infallible. Moreover, USD/JPY remains fundamentally hostage to the risk-appetite-sapping properties of the nasty spat between Pyongyang and Washington DC and now, the vicissitudes of Japanese politics as a snap election looms. However, assuming calm on both fronts, it seems most likely that the Yen has more to suffer yet against the US Dollar.

The Japanese currency looks even more heavily beleaguered against the British Pound. GBP/USD made another new 2017 peak just six days ago and has refused to fall very far since. There’s fundamental backing for this as markets move to price in a more hawkish Bank of England.

However, that process has seen the Pound veer into “overbought” territory as far as its Relative Strength Index is concerned. It’s no longer there, the RSI has retreated back below the 70-line danger zone. But it hasn’t retreated far and it might not make sense to rely on too much more momentum for sterling without at least a pause for reflection.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form