Analys från DailyFX

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: 2017 Gains Look Like Toast

Published

7 år ago

22 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

The Nikkei 225 has taken a battering as the Japanese Yen has gained
It’s now only 200 points or so above where it started the year
And the near-term prognosis doesn’t look great for any remaining bulls

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The Nikkei 225 is in a very uncomfortable spot. A fall of a little over 1%, or 200 points, would see its gains for the year wiped out.

19155.7 is where the index started the year. 19376.9 is where we are at the time of writing (2331 GMT on August 21).

To make matters worse that fall – and then some – looks all-but inevitable. The index had been in a gentle downtrend since it made its 2017 high back in mid-June. But that trend accelerated a couple of weeks back. Now the Nikkei’s short-term, 20-day moving average has crossed below both its 50- and 100-day versions. Such a crossover is generally held to be a bearish sign. Another one could be coming up, too, with the 50-day getting awfully close to the 100-day as you can see on the chart below.

There’s some sound fundamental backing for all this gloom too. The Japanese Yen sunk late last year thanks to the so-called “Trump trade.” That was when investors shook off their surprise at Donald Trump’s Presidential win, opted to give him the benefit of many doubts and hope for business-friendly tax cuts.

Now, with that thesis in severe doubt, the Yen has risen again. Indeed, it has been on the rise all year. This is never a sight to gladden the hearts of investors in the Nikkei’s plentiful exporters.

On a shorter-term view, the Nikkei is in the middle of a downtrend channel drawn from its August 7 high. The bulls may make a fight of it in the days ahead, of course. But at present there is little sign of the resolve needed to break that channel to the upside. Barring shocks the Nikkei may well be in the red for the year before next week is over.

If it is, the climb up from August 2016’s lows – in the 18200 area – will be in nervous focus once more.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form