Analys från DailyFX

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Weekly Close May Be Crucial

Published

7 år ago

17 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Last week’s falls took the Nikkei below its old trading range
However, the fightback has begun and old support has been regained
This is perhaps not the time for heroics

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Watch and wait. These might be the best three words you’ll read this week regarding current Nikkei 225 trade.

Admittedly things don’t look great for Japan’s equity benchmark, at least on its daily chart. Three painful straight days of falls, culminating in August 10’s long slip, have taken it below support which before had held doggedly since the start of May. It also looks as though the index is in the process of forming a new “lower high.”

However, neither the fall nor that lower high can be regarded as conclusively proven yet. There’s still clear appetite to buy the index even at current, still-elevated levels. Five days out of the six since that August 10 fall have seen the Nikkei rise, putting it comfortably back in its former trading range.

Admittedly the bulls have yet to retake the upper reaches, where the index had previously looked very comfortable. If they can’t then something more serious may be expected to the downside.

But it still too soon to suggest that they won’t. Therefore the weekly close, and next week’s early price action, may be critical.

It’s also worth noting that the index is now below its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages, which might argue that current selling has gone a little far. That said the 20-day has crossed below both of its longer-term counterparts and for many that will send a bearish signal.

To sum up then, the Nikkei is showing signs of weakness such as we haven’t seen for quite a while, but has yet to stray so far from recent trading norms as to make them a compelling argument to go short.

So yes, watch and wait, if only for this week’s close. If it still looks then as though a lower high is forming, the index could be in trouble. On the other hand if the bounce endures then we could be back to where we were before those August falls- busy doing nothing much, to be sure, but at altitude.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form