Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: A Big Test Coming Up For Market Optimists
Talking Points
- End of the month will be important for the SP 500
- Cycle turn window seen in USD/JPY near the end of the week
- GBP/USD still unable to fully breach key support level
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY remains near the middle of the yea-to-date range
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 104.80
- The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 103.45 is again a near-term downside pivot, but under 102.85 is really needed to signal that a more important decline is unfolding
- The latter half of the week is an important cycle turn window
- Only a close over 104.80 would shift our near-term trend bias to positive
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 104.80
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD once again failed to close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6345 last
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.6570
- The 1.6345 level remains a critical downside pivot that must be broken to confirm that a broader move lower is indeed taking place
- A minor cycle turn window is seen on Tuesday
- On a daily close over the 2013 closing high at 1.6570 would turn us positive on the Pound
GBP/USD Strategy: We like selling into the anticipated strength over the next day or so.
Focus Chart of the Day: SP 500
This coming Friday commences the start of what we think will be an important two weeks for the SP 500 and pro-risk markets in general. A variety of different cyclical techniques and methodologies all converge over this time and suggest that whatever comes out of this period (high or low) will have serious influence on the direction of markets over the first half of 2014. With positive sentiment towards equities having recently reached its highest level in three decades and the daily chart now resembling a Sornette log – we clearly favor a high. Such an occurrence probably requires more near-term strength. Important Fibonacci and Gann price relationships exist from current levels all the way up to around 1925 in the SP 500 (though a test of the high end of this resistance area is not really favored) and mark a clear potential topping zone. Any weakness that follows this potential peak should last several months if our cyclical analysis is correct. It would take a decline of at least 3.5% in the index by early next month to seriously raise the possibility of a material low forming during this important cycle turn window.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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