Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Anticipating a Lively September & October
- Tactical decline in EUR/USD beginning to take shape
- USD/JPY fails at projection level
- Gold outlook remain positive
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD came under further downside pressure this week to trade to its lowest level since mid-July
- While below the 1.3415 2Q13 high our broader trend bias will remain lower in the single currency
- A weekly close below the 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1.3220 will be further evidence that a more important decline is unfolding
- The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window in the rate
- A move through the 1.3320 61.8% retracement of the late August – September decline would relieve the immediate downside pressure, but only a weekly close over 1.3415 turns us positive
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415
Weekly Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY touched the 100% projection of the initial August advance on Friday before coming under aggressive downside pressure
- While above the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
- The projection level at 100.15 and the 78.6% retracement of the July – August decline at 100.30 are now important pivots with a weekly close above required to signal the start of a new leg higher
- The next medium-term cycle turn window is seen in about a week
- A cluster of Gann supports near 98.60, 97.60 and 96.70 are important, but only weakness below .9375 will turn the broader outlook to negative in USD/JPY
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375
Weekly Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD came under further downside pressure this week following last week’s failure at the 7th square roo progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area
- While over the 3rd square root progression of the year’s low at 1280 our broader trend bias will remain higher in the metal
- A move through 1418 and the 100% projection of the July advance near 1440 is needed to set off the next important move higher in the metal
- The middle of the month looks like a cycle turn window
- The 1350 area is important support, but only a weekly close below 1280 would turn us longer-term negative on Gold
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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