Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Published

11 år ago

7 april, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

Important week for the Euro from a time cycle perspective
USD/JPY nearing key support
Important turn window is Gold this week

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY touched its highes level since January on Friday before reversing sharply to close the week below 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 103.35
Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while over 102.35
A move through last week’s high at 104.10 is needed to signal a resumption of the uptrend
A minor cycle turn window is seen over the enxt couple of days
Only a move under 102.35 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while above 102.35.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

XAU/USD has recovered smartly from just under the 50% retracement of the December/March move higher at 1285
Our near-term trend bias is lower in Gold while below 1336
A move under 1285 is needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend
An important cycle turn window is seen over the next few days
A clear move 1336 will shift the near-term trend bias to positive.

XAU/USD Strategy: Next few days are critical for Gold. Like holding only a minimal short position below 1336.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

EUR/USD closed last week below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730. The technical development suggests that the recent weakness in the exchange rate is likely more than just a correction and that a more important change in trend is taking shape. Clouding the negative technical picture is the second half of this week as a fairly important cyclical turn window is eyed around this time. A reversal during this turn window could see the Euro rally for a few weeks. This would fit the 35-year seasonal pattern for April which shows the exchange rate has a tendency to strengthen over the second half of the month. This technical/cyclical impasse is making the rate even harder than usual to analyze. The price action over the next few days should help clear up the picture a little bit. If the Euro can gain traction below 1.3640 over the next few days then any recovery that develops later this week is unlikely to be very aggressive. Failure to get under 1.3640 by Thursday on the other hand or any strength over 1.3820 and all bets are off.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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