Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Don’t Just Beware the Ides this Year

Published

11 år ago

4 mars, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

USD/JPY rebounds off key support level
GBP/USD nearing important pivot
March equity peak

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY tested key support yesterday at the 101.35 4th square root relationship of the year’s high, but did not close below
Our near-term trend bias is higher while 101.35 holds
The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 remains critical resistance with a move over this level needed to trigger a more important push higher
The latter part of the week is a minor cycle turn window
A daily close below 101.35 will turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square here. Awaiting 102.75/101.35 range to get resolved.

Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

GBP/USD remains in consolidation mode above the 38% retracement of the February range at 1.6595
Our near-term trend bias is positive in Cable while over 1.6595
The 16th square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1.6735 is key near-term resistance with a move over this level needed to confirm an upside resumption
The first half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window, but the end of the month looks especially significant from a longer-term timing perspective
A close under 1.6595 would turn us negative on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.6595.

Focus Chart of the Day: SP 500

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

We begin each month by surveying the cyclical landscape of various key financial instruments. Judging by the unusual large amount of potentially important cycle turn windows slated over the next 20 trading days, March is shaping up to be a key inflection point for the year as a whole. Markets with important timing this month include EUR/CHF, SPX, Gold, Silver, Cable and the FXCM Dollar Index. Special attention needs to be paid to equities and precious metals around the middle of the month as the confluence of longer-term cycles at this time is very compelling. Month end looks quite important for the Pound.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form