Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: End of Month is Key For Gold

Published

11 år ago

21 april, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

Several Fibonacci timing relationships converging next week in the metal
EUR/USD in consolidation mode below key level
USD/CAD nearing key resistance zone

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price amp; Time: End of Month is Key For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to lower range since failing earlier in the month at the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline in the 1.3900 area
Our near-term trend bias is positive in the Euro while over 1.3730
A move through 1.3900 is required to signal that a new move higher is underway
A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
Only weakness below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness against 1.3730.

Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price amp; Time: End of Month is Key For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/CAD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1.0855 area earlier in the month
Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0910
Interim resistance is eyed around 1.1030, but a more important pivot come into play at a key Gann/Fibonacci convergence in the 1.1055/65 region
Minor cycle turn windows are seen tomorrow and at the end of the week
A move under 1.0910 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Like being square. May look to buy on weakness later in the week.

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price amp; Time: End of Month is Key For Gold

The compression in volatility in the FX space is making cycle analysis much more challenging as identifying what is a significant swing point in such an environment is extremely difficult. The good news is that historically such low levels of vol are usually followed by periods of high vol as it reverts to its mean. The second half of 2014 should see volatility pick up if history repeats. For the meantime, we will focus on markets with the clearer cyclical picture. Gold has fit this bill since peaking during a key cycle turn window back in mid-March. The recent month-to-date high in the metal also came just after an important turn window. The next couple of days look to be a minor cyclical pivot for the XAU/USD, but the real window of focus is around the middle of next week as a couple of Fibonacci time relationships will be converging at this time. Continued weakness into this period would likely set up an important low.

To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form