Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: EUR/USD
Talking Points
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Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
Writing a cycle focused market report on the last day of the month is always a bit of a crap shoot as a couple of big orders around the London fix can make one look very foolish. That said we will give it a go as the EUR/USD short-term picture looks fairly clear. The correction we were looking for from last week’s medium-term cycle turn window has unfolded nicely and especially over the past 24-hours as the rate has taken out key support levels at 1.3740 and 1.3715. Friday and part of Monday look like a pretty clear minor turn window from where EUR/USD should try to turn up. How aggressive this anticipated move up is will be a big clue as to whether the correction has more room to run or not. A tepid recovery (or failure to bounce at all) that holds well below 1.3770 and lasts only a couple of days sets up a deeper decline over the next few weeks. An aggressive rally, on the other hand, early next week back through 1.3770 would signal that correction was only a week long affair and the broader uptrend is resuming.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY remains stuck near the center of the multi-month narrowing range
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 96.55
- The 5th square root progression of the year’s low at 98.60 is immediate resistance, but traction over 99.00 is really need to signal the start of a more meaningful direction move higher
- A longer-term Fibonacci time relationship suggest a breakout of the range is forthcoming in the next few days
- The 97.55 area is near-term support, but only under the 7th square root progression of the year’s high at 96.55 would turn us negative on the rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Square awaiting more directional clarity.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has come under steady pressure following last week’s failure to overcome the early October high at 1.6260
- Our near-term trend bias is higher while above 1.6015
- The 1.6090 area is immediate resistance, but traction over 1.6260 is really needed to signal that the broader uptrend is resuming
- Early next week is a minor turn window
- A daily close below the convergence of the 78.6% retracement of the year’s range and the 1×3 Gann angle line of the year’s low in the 1.6015 area would shift the trend bias to negative
GBP/USD Strategy: Like only reduced longs while above 1.6015.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD found support yesterday just below the .9455 61.8% retracement of the October range
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below the 8th square root progression of the year’s low at .9595
- The .9455 level is now an important near-term pivot with weakness below needed to trigger the next leg lower in the rate
- A very minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
- Only unexpected aggressive strength back over .9595 would shift our trend bias back to positive in the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .9595
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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