Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: EUR/USD

Published

11 år ago

21 november, 2013

DailyFX

Talking Points

Euro reverses at tail end of cycle turn window
USD/JPY touches highest level since early July
GBP/USD holding above key support level

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_21_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: EUR/USD - Sell on Strength?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY finally broke above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 100.65 on Thursday to trade to its highest level since early July
Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the exchange rate while above 99.65
A daily close today over 100.60 will be further confirmation than an important move higher is unfolding
Some caution is needed over the next couple of days, however, as a Gann time relationship related to the year’s high suggests the rate is at increased risk of undergoing some kind of turn
Only a daily close below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 99.65 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 99.65.

Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_NOV_21_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: EUR/USD - Sell on Strength?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

GBP/USD is in consolidation mode above the 61.8% retracement of the October/November decline at 1.6100
Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.5950
A Gann convergence near 1.6215 needs to be overcome to prompt a more important move higher in Cable
A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
A daily close below 1.5950 would turn us negative on the rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_21_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: EUR/USD - Sell on Strength?

EUR/USD waited until the last moment of our cycle turn window (perhaps even went through it by a few hours) before reversing course early on Wednesday. The exchange rate’s failure from just under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595 looks significant from a medium-term cyclical perspective and opens the way for further weakness in the near-term. Currently we are focused on Gann points at 1.3430 and 1.3360, with a daily close below the latter needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline. Strength back through the 9th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.3545 would make us seriously doubt the negative cyclical view, but only a move through Wednesday’s high of 1.3578 completely invalidates the cycle.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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