Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance
Gold the SP 500 break major levels while USD/JPY fails at Gann resistance.
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY touched the 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60 on Thursday before reversing sharply
- While over 96.55 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the rate
- The 98.60 level is now a clear upside pivot with strength over this level needed to signal a more important move higher
- Friday is a minor cycle turn window
- Weakness below 96.55 on a closing basis would turn the technical outlook negative
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side whilst over 96.55.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD continues to trade in a sideways to higher range above the 1.0285 2×1 Gann angle line of the 2012 low
- While Funds is below 1.0380 our near-term trend bias will remain lower
- A move under 1.0285 is now needed to trigger a more important decline
- A medium-term turn window is see around the middle of next week
- Strengh above 1.0380 is needed to improve the negative technical structure and tun us positive on the rate
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the short side on a move through 1.0285.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 broke below a key support level at 1672 on Thursday
- Our near-term trend bias is now negative in the index
- The 38% retracement of the June to August advance near 1650 is immediate support and weakness below there is requred to set up a more important decline
- Near-term cycles studies suggest today could be signficant for the market
- A close back over 1672 would alleviate some of the downside pressure, but above 1710 is really needed to put the index back in a truly positive position
SP 500 Strategy: Like being short while below 1710.
Focus Chart of the Day: XAU/USD
Gold underwent an important break on Thursday as it managed to close over both key Fibonacci symmetry at 1348 and the 1×2 Gann angle line of 2012 high near 1360. This break of key resistance now puts the index in a much more positive technical position and increases the possibility that a more important low was indeed recorded during the late June Gann cycle turn window. However, the metal is not quite out of the woods just yet as the 78.6% retracement of the June range, the 61.8% projection of the June to July advance and the 6th square root progression of the June low all lurk overhead between 1372 and 1384. A clear breach of these levels would definitively further improve the metal’s outlook. That said, only weakness under 1280 undermines the positive tone in XAU/USD and turns the outlook overtly negative.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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