Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

Published

11 år ago

26 november, 2013

DailyFX

Talking Points

USD/JPY tests key resistance zone
EUR/USD nearing important upside pivot
AUD/USD closing in on major support zone

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 50% retracement of the July to October advance near 1.3290 at the beginning of the month
Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595
The 6th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.3430 is a key near-term pivot with a move below needed to re-invigorate immediate downside prospects
A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next 24 hours or so
A daily close above 1.3595 will turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while 1.3595 holds.

Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since early July on Tuesday
Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9220
A clonfluence of several key Gann and Fibonacci levels between .9030 and .9060 suggests this zone is the mext major attraction for the rate
A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
Only a daily close over .9220 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while below .9220.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

The Gann cycle turn window we highlighted last week looks to have stalled the USD/JPY advance with the exchange rate coming under modest downside pressure following yesterday’s close right on key resistance at 101.70 (2nd square root relationship of the year’s high). Just how important this turn window proves to be will be determined by how the exchange rate reacts when/if it arrives at support. Our first level of interest will be the 3×1 Gann angle line of the year’s high around 101.10. A break of this would likely set up a move to the first real key level of support at the 3rd square root relationship of the May high near 100.65. Any weakness below this this level would be much more negative and increase the probability that a deeper correction will emanate from the turn window. A move through 101.90 or a daily close over 101.70 would undermine the potential cycle top and suggest the broader move higher is resuming.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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