Price & Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

| 26 november, 2013 | 0 kommentarer

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY tests key resistance zone
  • EUR/USD nearing important upside pivot
  • AUD/USD closing in on major support zone

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 50% retracement of the July to October advance near 1.3290 at the beginning of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595
  • The 6th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.3430 is a key near-term pivot with a move below needed to re-invigorate immediate downside prospects
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next 24 hours or so
  • A daily close above 1.3595 will turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while 1.3595 holds.

Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since early July on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9220
  • A clonfluence of several key Gann and Fibonacci levels between .9030 and .9060 suggests this zone is the mext major attraction for the rate
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • Only a daily close over .9220 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while below .9220.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_26_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: How Important is this Retracement in USD/JPY?

The Gann cycle turn window we highlighted last week looks to have stalled the USD/JPY advance with the exchange rate coming under modest downside pressure following yesterday’s close right on key resistance at 101.70 (2nd square root relationship of the year’s high). Just how important this turn window proves to be will be determined by how the exchange rate reacts when/if it arrives at support. Our first level of interest will be the 3×1 Gann angle line of the year’s high around 101.10. A break of this would likely set up a move to the first real key level of support at the 3rd square root relationship of the May high near 100.65. Any weakness below this this level would be much more negative and increase the probability that a deeper correction will emanate from the turn window. A move through 101.90 or a daily close over 101.70 would undermine the potential cycle top and suggest the broader move higher is resuming.

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Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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