Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

| 13 november, 2013 | 0 kommentarer

Talking Points

  • Gold breaks key Gann support level
  • USD/JPY threatening bigger break
  • Cable nearing cycle turn window

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Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_4.png, Price amp; Time: Important Break in Gold?

XAU/USD finally closed below the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low at 1277 yesterday. This Gann level had been acting as important support and actually repelled the decline last month. Tuesday’s technical break is thus probably significant and increases the risk of further losses especially with a very mature topping pattern looming overhead on the daily and weekly charts. Gann support at 1243/48 is now a critical pivot with a move below likely exposing the year’s low. The cyclical picture is quite muddled with all the choppy price action of the past few months, though the middle of next week looks like a potentially important cyclical turn window. A move today back over 1277 would raise concern of a false break, but traction over 1322 is really needed alleviate the immediate negative tone.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY probed above the 4th square root progression of the year’s high at 99.60 on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 97.55
  • A daily close over 99.60 is now critical in confirming a breakout from the multi-month contracting range
  • The first and latter half of next week are cycle turn windows in USD/JPY
  • A move under the 6th square root progression of the year’s high at 97.55 would turn us negative on the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 97.55

Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure since last month’s failure at the 200-day moving average
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Aussie while below .9420
  • Gann support between .9260 and .9220 is a critical action/reaction zone
  • The second half of the week is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • A move back over .9420 would turn us positive in the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like reducing short exposure into the cycle turn window.

Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-September on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.6055
  • The 9th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.5895 is important support and a daily close below this level is needed to signal a resumption of the latest decline
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen over the latter half of the week
  • Back over the 50% retracement of the late October/November decline at 1.6055 would shift our trend bias back to positive

GBP/USD Strategy: Like reducing short positons into this turn window.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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Kategori: Analys från DailyFX

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