Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data
GBP/USD breaks a pivotal level, while AUD/USD GOLD consolidate below key resistance levels.
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has come under steady pressure since failing late last week at the 8×1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high near 1.3400
- While above the 1.3240 level our near-term trend bias has to remain higher in the rate
- There is Gann resistance at 1.3320, but over 1.3400/15 is really required to confirm a more important move higher
- The near-term cyclical picture remains very muddled, though today is a minor turn window
- The 4th square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3240 is key support in the medium-term and only a close below this level will turn us negative on the rate
EUR/USD Strategy: A little confused by the cyclical picture so still square.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD remains in consolidation mode below a long-term retracement level at .9215
- While over .9035 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the Aussie
- The .9215 area is immediate resistance, but a move through the 12th square root progression of the year’s high at .9295 is really needed to signal the start of a more powerful advance
- A minor turn window is seen over the next couple of days
- Weakness back under .9035 would undermine the burgeoning positive technical structure and turn us negative on the rate
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while the Aussie is over .9035.
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD has moved steadily higher over the past week since finding good support at the 4th square root prgoression of the July high
- While below key Fibonacci symmetry near 1350, however, our near-term bias will remain lower in the metal
- On the downside the 1280 area remains a critical and weakness below on a closing basis is needed to propm a more serious move lower
- Near-term cycles studies suggest early next week is a turn window
- A close over 1350 will turn the technical outlook much more positive
XAU/USD Strategy: Short against 1350, may go with a stop and reverse on a break.
Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD
The 1×1 Gann line drawn from the year-to-date high has been a very important resistance over the past few months. During the important cyclical turn window in mid-June, for instance, the angle line led to an important high with price stalling almost to the exact pip. Last week the 1×1 line saw the uptrend in Cable stall out at after a brief foray above the line. Today, however, GBP/USD has finally managed to overcome the resistance of the Gann angle line and a close over the level looks today like a forgone conclusion. This obviously puts the exchange rate in a positive technical position, but until the 1.5750 2Q13 high is overcome it will be difficult to get too excited about the pair’s longer-term prospects.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Pound in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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