Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions
- EUR/USD rebounds off an Andrews line
- AUD/USD potentially tracing out a more important bottom
- GBP/USD needs to overcome 1.5725 to signal the start of a more important move higher
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:forex technical analysis,forex analysis,forex trading strategies,forex signals,forex strategies,forex strategy, forex trading
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD traded to its lowest level in over a month Tuesday before finding support at an Andrews line in the 1.3160 area
- Our near-term trend bias is negative on the exchange rate while below 1.3300
- The Andrews line at 1.3160 is now a key level of focus with weakness below ideally on a closing basis needed to signal a downside resumption
- A medium-term turn window is eyed around the second half of next week
- Strength back over the 1.3300 50% retracement of the August to September decline would turn the outlook back to positive
EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength over the next few days.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has moved steaduly higher since finding support on a closing basis last week at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high
- While over 1.5460 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
- The 78.6% retracement at 1.5655 is the next minor upside pivot, but strength over 1.5725 is really required to signal the start of a more important move higher
- A minor cycle turn window seen at the end of the week
- The 50% retracement of the late August decline is near-term support, but only weakness below the 1×1 Gann line at 1.5460 undermines the postive structure in Cable
GBP/USD Strategy: Like buying on weakness next week.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD has struggled to overcome resistance at the 1×2 Gann angle line of the of the 2012 closing low in the 1.0560 area
- However, while above the 50% retracement of the July range at 1.0425 our near-term trend bias is higher in the rate
- The 1.0560 remains a critical near-term pivot with strength above required to unlock critical resistance at 1.0610 and above
- A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- Weakness below 1.0425 on a closing basis would turn us negative on Funds
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.0425
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD
In previous Price Times we have written about the potential importance of the early August low as this time period holds a clear Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past 4 years. Last week’s inability to break under .8845 further confirms its importance and raises the possibility that a larger bottoming process is unfolding. Traction over .9230 especially on a weekly closing basis would be further confirmation of this scenario. Only unexpected weakness below .8845 would completely undermine the positive potential time cycle relationship.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the AUD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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