Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Minor USD Reprieve Or Something More?
Talking Points
- EUR/USD in consolidation mode above key Gann level
- USD/CAD nearing important downside pivot
- AUD/USD downtrend stalling?
Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD recorded a new low for the year late last week before finding support near the 10th square root realtionship of the year’s high around 1.2820
- Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the euro while below 1.2990
- A close below 1.2820 is needed to re-instill downside momentume and expose key support around last year’s low in the 1.2750 area
- An important turn window is around the end of the week
- A close over 1.2990 would turn us positive on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced long short positions while below 1.2990.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD reversed during a key cyclical turn window early last week near 1.1100
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while below 1.1100
- A close below 1.0930 is needed to trigger a more serious decline
- A minor turn window is eyed over the next couple of days
- A close over 1.1100 would turn us positive again on USD/CAD
USD/CAD Strategy: Like selling into strength against 1.1000.
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD
A few markets are attempting to reverse around the key Gann Equinox period we highlighted last week. The most notable are JPY, AUD and the SP 500. All have been in very strong trends so the burden of proof is on USD bears as to whether this something more as opposed to the more likely scenario of just a minor reprieve. In AUD/USD the pair tested our key support zone at .8860/35 and this area should now hold if any sort of decent correction is to unfolding. A move through .8950 is needed to confirm at least a temporary low is in place, but traction over .8980 is really required to raise the possibility that a more serious turn is underway. USD/JPY is in a similar situation as the rate has become vulnerable after JPY bulls fell to 3% last week. Interim support is eyed around 108.40, but a move under 107.35 is really needed to turn the outlook more negative and set off a more serious correction. A move through 109.40 would obviously undermine this negative scenario. Lastly in the SP 500 the key near-term level looks to be last week’s low near 1977/73, but only under 1932 warns that a more serious move lower is afoot.
To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
- All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday
- Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes
- A shift to surplus will likely drive Brent towards the 60-line and the high 50ies
-
Analys från DailyFX10 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter7 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke