Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: RBNZ A Seller
Talking Points
- USD/JPY trying to break through key resistance
- GBP/USD turns down again
- NZD/JPY triggers multi-month Head Shoulders pattern
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY broke to a new high for the year this morning before stalling at the 9th square root realtionship of the years’s low near 109.75
- Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 108.30
- A close over 109.75 is needed to confirm that a new leg higher is underway
- An important turn window is eyed next week
- A close below 108.30 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Like holding reduced long positions while above 108.30
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has come under steady albeit modest pressure since failing at the 78.6% retracement of the September range at 1.6515
- Our near-term trend bias is in Cable while below 1.6515
- Interim support is eyed between 1.6175/35 ahead of the key 1.6055 level
- A minor turn window is eyed today
- A close over 1.6515 would turn us positive on the Pound
GPB/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.65152
Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/JPY
NZD/USD was the big story overnight as the RNBZ confirmed the speculation that they are intervening in the market. The news prompted a large volume decline to its lowest level since July of last year. The moves in the crosses were perhaps more interesting as AUD/NZD moved impulsively higher and is not just a few pips shy of a new year-to-date high. A breach of this level would be seen as further evidence that an important uptrend is underway following the 8.6 year cycle low in July. The decline in NZD/JPY is alos quite interesting as it broke under the neckline of a multi-month head shoulders pattern (daily closing basis) at .8575. The measured objective of the pattern is around .8200.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
- All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday
- Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes
- A shift to surplus will likely drive Brent towards the 60-line and the high 50ies
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