Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: The Next 48 Hours Are Important for EUR/USD
USD/JPY Gold rebound off key support levels while GBP/USD fails at a familiar Gann level. The EUR/USD cyclical picture should clear up over the next 48 hours.
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY traded to its lowest level in almost 2-months late last week before finding support around the 1×2 Gann angle line of the 1Q13 low in the 96.30 area
- Subsequent strength back through 96.60 alleviates some of the downside pressure, but a close over a key Fibonacci confluence near 97.50 is needed to turn the near-term trend positive
- The 78.6% retracement near 95.50 remains key support and weakness below this level is needed to signal a resumption of the near-term downtrend
- Monday is a minor cyclical turn window
- A close above the Fibonacci convergence near 97.50 is required to turn us positive on the exchange rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Square, but may look to sell against 97.50.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD failed late last week at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the 1.5565 area
- While above 1.5375 our near-term trend bias has to remain higher in Cable
- A close over 1.5565 is required to signal a resumption of the near-term trend
- A minor turn window is seen today
- Weakness below 1.5375 on a closing basis will turn us negative and opens the way for a deeper correction lower in the Pound
GBP/USD Strategy: Small longs favored while over 1.5375.
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD tested the 4th square root progression of the July last week in the 1280 area but could not close below this important support level
- While below 1348 our near-term trend bias will remain lower in the metal
- Weakness under 1280 on a closing basis is needed to set up a more important decline
- Near-term cycle studies suggest the next day or so is a minor turn window
- Strength above 1348 on a closing basis would alter the negative technical structure and turn us positive on Gold
GOLD Strategy: Prefer the short side while below 1348.
Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
The Euro is at an important juncture from a price time perspective. Last week’s breach of the July high near 1.3340 alleviated a potential medium-term negative cyclical influence. However, the single currency’s failure to surpass the 2Q13 high at 1.3415 keeps EUR/USD in a longer-term negative position. Is the weakness we are seeing to start the week the longer-term negative cycle beginning to re-assert its influence or is just a “breather” before the Euro makes another more important push higher? The shorter-term cyclical picture should be able to help us determine which scenario is unfolding as if is the latter then EUR/USD should start to turn up again over the next 24-48 hours. Weakness into Wednesday below 1.3170 would be strong evidence that a more important decline is developing.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Euro in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Brent crude marches on with accelerating strength coming from Mid-East time-spreads
- Crude oil comment: Pulling back after technical exhaustion and disappointing US inventory data. Low Cushing stocks lifting eyebrows
- The rally continues with good help from Russian crude exports at 16mths low
- Brent takes a pause, but a yet softer USD could propel it higher
- Brent crude falling back along with softer nat gas prices
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke