Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Top Looming in the Aussie
Talking Points
- Important cyclical relationship coming up for AUD/USD
- USD/JPY rebounds from major Gann level
- GBP/USD at important cyclical inflection point
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY found support again last week at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 101.35 area
- Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while below 103.00
- A move under 101.35 is needed to trigger a more important decline
- A potentially important cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the week
- Only strength over 103.00 turns us positve on the dollar again
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 103.00
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD is once again threatening the year’s high near 1.6820
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while over 1.6655
- A breach of both 1.6820 and a key square root relationship of last year’s low at 1.6850 is needed to prime the market for a new leg higher
- However, a cycle turn window of some importance is seen today
- A move under 1.6655 will turn us negative on the Pound
GBP/USD Strategy: Hold only small longs into this turn window.
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD
A simple Fibonacci time extension suggests the next couple of weeks could prove critical for AUD/USD. The 200% extension of the move measured from the 2008 low to the 2011 high could influence during this time. The 161.8% time extension of the same advance led to last year’s high. Will history repeat in 2014? Probably not, but with the exchange rate trending higher into this important turn window the odds seem to favor a top of at least some importance developing. The 8th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9460 and the 78.6% retracement of the October to January decline at .9520 look to be very important resistance.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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