Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: USD Goes Bid!

Published

11 år ago

20 mars, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

EUR/USD reverses sharply from key resistance, reaction at oncoming support needs to be watched closely
USD/CAD touches multi-year high – what next?
Gold weakness leading the way?

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_20_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: USD Goes Bid!

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure over the past couple of days following another failed attempt to overcome key Fibonacci resistance at 1.3970
Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3930
The square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 is a key downside pivot with traction below needed to confirm that a more important move lower is unfolding
A cycle turn window is seen next week
Only aggressive strength back over the year’s closing high at 1.3930 would turn us positive again on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Look to sell the Euro into strength.

Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_MAR_20_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: USD Goes Bid!

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/CAD overcame the 50% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 decline at 1.1235 yesterday to trade at its highest level in over 4.5 years
Our near-term trend bias remains higher in Funds while above 1.1120
The 127% extension of the Jan/Feb decline at 1.1310 is the next resistance of note
A minor turn window is seen early next week
A daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of the February low at 1.1120 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1120

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_MAR_20_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: USD Goes Bid!

Gold peaked into the cycle turn window we highlighted last week with a dramatic outside day reversal on the Monday focus date from just over the 6th square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1385. Follow through weakness has been persistent and seen the metal erode through initial support at 1349. This keeps us looking lower with focus now on a key confluence of support between 1318 and 1310. It is difficult to predict with any high rate of success the extent of a market move following one of these turn windows. For this we rely more on observation and prefer to study how an instrument reacts at key price points following a turn. If the reversal earlier this week has just been a minor correction within a burgeoning uptrend then 1318/10 should probably hold. An easy move under 1310 would be a serious warning sign that a more important decline is unfolding. A very minor cycle turn is possible around the end of the week.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form