Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: USD & Stocks Losing Luster

Published

11 år ago

8 april, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

SP 500 nearing critical support level
EUR/USD has important cycle turn window later this week
USD/CAD threatening major downside break

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_APR_8_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD closed back over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3730 on Monday
Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3820
Weakness under the 127% extension of the late March/early April recovery at 1.3670 needs to be breached to signal a resumption of the broader decline
A key cycle turn window is seen later this week
A move over 1.3820 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: The turn window this week looks important for the Euro. Like only reduced short positions in the exchange rate while below 1.3820.

Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_APR_8_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/CAD broke under the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.0960 today to trade at its lowest level since mid-February
Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while under 1.1015
The February low at 1.0910 is a major downside pivot with weakness below required to confirm that a broader turn is taking shape in the exchange rate
An important cycle turn window is seen next week
Strength back over 1.1015 would turn us positive on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: We like the short side while below 1.1015.

Focus Chart of the Day: SP 500

PT_APR_8_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

The SP 500 failed to get above 1900. This would have, in our view, eliminated much of the risk of a false upside break. The weakness over the past few days is obviously very concerning, but from a technical cyclical point of view 1830 remains the key level to watch. The middle of March was significant for the index as a variety of different cyclical relationships converged during this time. The March low in the index made near 1830 is thus very significant and should not be breached if the SP 500 is still in the midst of a strong uptrend. Any weakness under 1830 in the days ahead would remove this “time support” element in the index and set up a potentially much more important decline for equities. Further weakness that holds above 1830 before reversing would be a very positive development for the SP 500.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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