Price & Time: USD/CAD at a New Multi-Year High

| 21 januari, 2014 | 0 kommentarer

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD threatening key support
  • Gold nearing cycle turn window
  • USD/CAD still a month away from big cyclical inflection point

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_Jan_21_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: USD/CAD at a New Multi-Year High

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded at its lowest level in almost two months on Monday before finding support near the 50% retracement of the 2009 to 2010 range at 1.3510
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.3775
  • The 61.8% projection of the early January decline at 1.3485 is a near-term downside pivot with weakness below needed to prompt the next important leg lower in the Euro
  • The latter half of the week is a cycle turn window
  • Only a close over the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high at 1.3775 would shift our near-term trend bias positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3775.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_Jan_21_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: USD/CAD at a New Multi-Year High

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD briefly overcame the 1257 88.6% retracement of the December range on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias in Gold is higher while above 1206
  • A daily close over 1262 is needed to trigger the next important leg higher in the metal
  • A cycle turn window is seen over the second half of the week
  • On a daily close below the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1206 would turn us negative on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: We like the long side, but only from lower levels.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

PT_Jan_21_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: USD/CAD at a New Multi-Year High

USD/CAD finally distanced itself from the 161.8% extension of the 2012 range at 1.0950 today to trade at its highest level in over 4 years. A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week, but the big cyclical inflection point for USD/CAD looks to be in about a month as a variety of different longer-term cyclical methods all converge around the third week of February. A high of some importance is slightly favored around this time as sentiment towards the exchange rate is getting very ebullient (the 10-day moving average of DSI is just over 10% bulls). A material turn lower in USD/CAD before the second half of February would obviously change this view and raise the possibility of a cyclical inversion, but that is a big ‘if’. The top of the 1-year standard channel near 1.1100 is the next resistance hurdle of note.

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Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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Kategori: Analys från DailyFX

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