Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance
- USD/CHF rebounds off key Gann level
- Cycles favor a further rebound in the SP 500
- USD/JPY testing a major upside pivot
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CHF has rebounded further off the 7th square root progression of the year-the year-to-date high in the .9145 area
- Subsequent strength through the 2nd square root progression of the August low at .9335 has shifted our near-term trend bias to positive
- Immediate focus is on the 38% retracement of the July to August decline at .9375 with strength above needed to expose Gann points at .9405 and .9440
- A couple of minor turn windows are seen over the next few days, but a more important window is eyed around the middle of next week
- A confluence of Gann support levels near .9260 needs to be breached to undermine the burgeoning positive structure in the rate
USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9260.
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD traded to its lowest level since early July last week before rebounding sharply over the past few days
- Strength over .7860 has turned the near-term trend bias to positive
- A convergence of Gann and Fibonacci levels near.7940 suggests that this area is the next pivot of interest with a close above needed set up a further advance
- A minor turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
- The .7860 area is now support, but only weakness below the August low near .7720 will turn us negative on the Bird
NZD/USD Strategy: Small longs favored while over .7720.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 found support last week at the 2nd square root progression of the all time high in 1627 area
- While below the 78.6% retracement of the August range at 1692 our trend bias will remain negative
- The 1627 level remains a major downside pivot with weakness below needed to trigger material weakness
- The short-term cyclical picture favors strength for at least a few days
- Only a close over 1692 would improve the negative technical outlook
SP 500 Strategy: Like the short side while below 1692. May look to add into the expected strength over the next few days.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
Key resistance for us in USD/JPY has been 99.45/65 as this area includes the 1×1 Gann angle line of the and the 4th square root progression of the year’s high (if we include the 61.8% retracement of the May to June decline we could say this resistance zone extends all the way to 99.95). While the exchange rate managed to trade above this zone on an intraday basis yesterday it wasn’t able to finish the day above these levels leaving us with lingering doubts about the latest move higher. For us, a close over this zone is really needed to signal an end to the consolidation period of the past few months and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Failure to get over this zone on a closing basis by the end of the week would warn that the consolidation phase is not yet finished.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the JPY in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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