Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: USD/MXN
Talking Points
- USD/MXN consolidates below key cyclical pivot
- USD/JPY fails at minor Fibo
- NZD/USD records new multi-year low
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY traded at its highest level in two months this morning before reversing sharply
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 124.00
- A daily close above 125.20 is needed to re-instill upside mometum into the exchange rate
- A minor turn window is eyed on Friday
- A close below 124.00 will turn us negative on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 124.00 (closing basis).
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD fell to a new multi-year low this morning before reversing sharply
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the kiwi while below .6680
- Weakness back under .6500 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
- A minor turn window is seen tomorrow
- A daily close above .6680 would turn us positive on NZD/USD
NZD/USD Strategy: Like short side while below .6680
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/MXN
USD continues to perplex. The FXCM dollar basket USDOLLAR has struggled with a Fibonacci retracement at 12,050, but it has also failed to exhibit any real negative technical action whenever it has failed at resistance. Another chart that typifies the uncertainty in the dollar is USD/MXN. As we highlighted a couple of weeks ago (read here), the exchange rate peaked out during an interesting cyclical window as it came right around 3.14 years from the 2012 high (the closing high for July actually came within one trading day of an exact relationship). It is still up in the air as to just how important this peak is. It could just be a relatively minor pause before another run higher or it could be the start of a much deeper setback. Last month’s low around 16.0000 looks important in this regard as a move below there would suggest that the exchange rate is embarking on a more important move lower. Strength through 16.4900 would obviously invalidate the burgeoning negative cycle path and set the stage for another leg higher in USD/MXN.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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