Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Watch Euro Mid-Week

Published

11 år ago

24 februari, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

USD/JPY testing key resistance zone
GOLD backs off from important Fibonacci area
EUR/USD nearing important turn window

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_FEB_24_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Watch Euro Mid-Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 101.35
Our near-term trend bias is higher while above 101.35
The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is a major hurdle that needs to be overcome soon on a closing basis if a more important advance is to take hold
The middle of the week is a cycle turn window
A daily close below 101.35 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square for the moment. Awaiting a break of 102.75.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_FEB_24_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Watch Euro Mid-Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

XAU/USD has stalled its advance since encountering resistance last week at a confluence of Fibonacci levels between 1336 and 1341
Our near-term trend bias is positive in Gold while above 1306
The 1341 level is an important near-term pivot with traction above needed to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
Weakness below the 50% retracement of the August to December decline at 1306 would turn us negative on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1306.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_FEB_24_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Watch Euro Mid-Week

We had a good call in USD/CAD last week as the rate reversed sharply higher from the cycle turn window we had been closely watching mid-week. EUR/USD, on the other hand, has been a different story. The turn we were looking for early last week failed to produce any change and the rate has been threatening resistance at the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high at 1.3775 ever since. The choppy nature of trading in the Euro since the start of the year is making short-term cycle analysis challenging to say the least. With the rate in its 4th week of an advance, our best guess for the next important turn window is around the middle of this week. A turn lower in the Euro here would signal the 2013 high is still influencing and would potentially set the stage for a broader resumption lower. Continued strength after Thursday above 1.3800 and all bets are off.

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form