Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: What Now For the Euro?

Published

11 år ago

16 december, 2013

DailyFX

Talking Points

Important cycle turn window seen around the end of the year in EUR/USD
USD/JPY comes off multi-year high
GBP/USD nearing key support level

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Dec_16_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: What Now For the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY moved above 104.00 last week to trade at its highest level since 2008
Our near-term trend bias is positive on the rate while above 101.65
Interim resistance is seen around 104.00 ahead of the next key attraction near the 104.55 100% extension of the September/October decline
A medium-term cycle turn window late last week could see the rate come under some pressure if 104.00 cannot be overcome soon
Only a daily close below 101.65 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Favor the long side while over 101.65

Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_Dec_16_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: What Now For the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

GBP/USD traded last week to its highest level since 2011 before reversing
Our near-term trend bias remains higher in Cable while over the 1.6210 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high
The 1.6460 area is interim resistance ahead of a key Fibonacci/Gann convergence at 1.6500
A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of the week
A daily close under 1.6210 would turn us negative on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.6210

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_Dec_16_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: What Now For the Euro?

Looking at exchange rates this morning it seems little has changed in the week I have been absent. Perhaps the most notable price action from a cyclical perspective has been in EUR/USD as the rate blew through an important cycle turn window around the start of the month. In many ways this strength in the single currency is not all that surprising as December has a seasonal tendency to be one of the stronger months in the rate. That said, January has a tendency to be one of the worse. With important longer-term Pi and Fibonacci cyclical relationships converging in about two weeks and sentiment approaching contrarian extremes (DSI at 85% bulls as of Friday) I believe the Euro is setting up for an important top of sorts around the end of the year. Given the proximity of the October higher, it is likely to materialize from above 1.3830 with 1.3880 and 1.3990 the next key resistance zones of note.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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