Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Published

11 år ago

31 mars, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

Important turn window coming up for Gold
EUR/USD rebounds off minor retracement level
AUD/USD turns lower during “Gann Death Zone”

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD traded at its lowest level in a month on Friday before rebounding off the 78.6% retracement of the late Feb/early March advance near 1.3700
Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.3875
The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 remains a critical downside pivot with a daily close below needed to confirm that a more important leg lower is unfolding
A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
A move back over the the high of last week at 1.3875 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: We like the short side while below 1.3875.

Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

AUD/USD traded at its highest level since late November last week, but failed several times to surpass the 6th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9260 on a closing basis
Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while above .9160
A close over .9260 is required to signal that the uptrend is resuming
A Gann cycle turn window late last week suggests a top of some importance could be in place
A move under .9160 will turn us negative on the exchange rate

AUD/USD Strategy: We like the long side while above .9160.

Focus Chart of the Day: XAU/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Gold has lost over $100 an ounce since topping out right on the March 17th cyclical turn window. On Friday the metal tested important support at the 50% retracement of the December to March range at 1285. April 4th through the 9th looks like the next turn window of importance as a couple of important relationships related to the 2011 high and the 2013 low will be converging during this period. Continued weakness in XAU/USD below 1285 in the days ahead would likely set up a low of importance heading into next week, while a recovery from this level over the next week would favor a secondary high.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form