Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes
Talking Points
- JPY sentiment at historical extremes
- EUR/USD at important cyclical inflection point
- AUD/USD recovers from key Gann level
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
Looking for real time Forex analysis throughout the day? Try DailyFX on Demand.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD failed near the1.3895 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline on Friday
- Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the exchange rate while over 1.3655
- The 1.3895 level and the 50% retracement of the 2008/2010 decline at 1.3955 are major upside attractions that need to be overcome if the Euro is to embark on a more important move higher
- An important long-term cycle is in effect over the next few days
- A move under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3655 will turn us negative on the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.3655
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD found support again on Monday at the 9th square root relationship of the October high near .8860
- Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Aussie while below .8965
- A daily close below .8860 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader downtrend
- A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- A daily close over the 8th square root relationship of the October high at .8965 would turn us positive on the exchange rate
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side on a move through .8965.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) in the Yen fell to just 7% bulls on Friday. Historically such low levels of sentiment have been a reliable precursor to corrections in USD/JPY. Interestingly at the same time this extreme in sentiment is occurring the exchange rate is close to important long-term resistance in the form of the 61.8% retracement of 2007/2011 decline near 105.60. The missing ingredient for a correction is cyclicality, though a case could be made for a Gann turn window here if one uses the late October low (45 trading days from 10/25 was yesterday). A Gann angle line related to the 2011 low is at 103.90 and we are using this as a key near-term support level. If the exchange rate cannot get through 105.60 over the next few days and falls below 103.90 we will turn much more negative on USD/JPY.
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients