Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time:Next Few Days Are Important for the Currency Markets
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
EUR/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
–EUR/USD rebounded on Wednesday from the convergence of the 50% retracement of the April advance and the 2nd square root progression of this year’s low in the 1.2970 area
–While under the 1.3200 4th square root progression of the year-to-date low our broader bias remains lower in the single currency
-Focus remains on 1.2970 with weakness below this level needed to prompt a more aggressive decline
-Short-term cyclical counts are positive for another day, but a major time cycle turn window related to the all-time low and high is in effect for a few days
-The 1×1 Gann angle line from the year-to-date high at 1.3115 is immediate resistance, but only traction over 1.3200 turns us positive
Strategy: Short-term cyclical counts seem to favor Euro strength into the longer-term turn window seen over the next few days. Looking to fade this strength if it materializes.
GBP/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
–GBP/USD moved sharply higher on Thursday and traded to its highest level in over two months
-The break of several Gann levels in the 1.5325 area has turned us positive on Cable
-The 61.8% retracement of the February to March decline in the 1.5480 area is immediate resistance ahead of a Gann line convergence in the 1.5515 area
-Short-term cycles look positive for a few more days
-The 38% retracement of the year-to-date range in the 1.5400 area is immediate support, but only weakness under 1.5325 turn us negative on the exchange rate
Strategy: Don’t want to chase near this resistance zone. Looking to buy on weakness.
GOLD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
–XAU/USD broke convincingly above the 1434 38% retracement of the March to April decline on Thursday
–Despite this recent strength, our broader bias remains lower while under key resistance near 1500
-However, weakness under the 2nd square root progression from the year-to-date-low in the 1395 area is needed to signal a downside resumption
-Short-term cycle studies favor strength for a few more days
-The 4th square root progression from this year’s low in the 1465 area is immediate resistance, but only strength over a convergence of several key Gann and Fibonacci levels near 1500 would shift bias higher
Strategy: Want to get short in the days ahead. Ideally just ahead of the resistance confluence near 1500.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
We have been focused on the Fibonacci time cycle turn window anticipated in the Euro over the next few days. However, a potentially important Gann related turn window is in effect at the same time in USD/JPY. Yesterday we highlighted the Gann wheel relationship between the late October 2000 all-time low in the Euro and late April and its potential to spark a turn. Using the same technique in USD/JPY shows a similar time relationship between late April and the start of the current multi-year uptrend in the exchange rate as the low was recorded on October 31, 2011. The fact this turn date coincides with other exchange rates on different cycles makes it potentially more important. This obviously has important knock on implications for EUR/JPY and suggests a turn of significance could materialize in the cross too. Somewhat fittingly, late April also has a Gann wheel relationship in EUR/JPY as this time period coincides with the low recorded in the cross last July. From a time cycle perspective the next few days look very important for the currency markets and we will be closely monitoring EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY for any signs of a turn.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.
Need guidance managing risk on trades? Download the free Risk Management Indicator.
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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