Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time:The Squeeze Play

Published

11 år ago

9 oktober, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points

EUR/USD price action over next few days critical in determining how significant the correction really is
USD/JPY challenging key downside pivot
Gold rally gathers pace

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price amp; Time:The Squeeze Play

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY continues to flirt with a key downside pivot at 108.00
Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above this level on a closing basis
Strength back through 108.75 is needed to re-instill upside momentum in the pair
A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
A close under 108.00 will turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like holding only minimal long position while above 108.00. Will go square on a close below.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

Price amp; Time:The Squeeze Play

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

XAU/USD has moved briskly higher since successfully testing last year’s low near 1179 earlier in the week
Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the metal while below 1247
Interim support is eyed at 1206, but a move under 1179 is really needed to set off a more important decline
A minor turn window is tomorrow
A close over 1247 would turn us positive on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Square

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price amp; Time:The Squeeze Play

Yesterday I read 5 different bank notes saying to short the euro around 1.2650 with a stop above 1.2700. I wasn’t that surprised to see us trading near 1.2800 when I woke up this morning. The big question for most is determining whether that was the extent of the squeeze or are we going to get several weeks of this? It is still too early to tell and the action over the next few days will be instrumental in deciphering this riddle. I am leaning towards a multi-week affair because the cyclical timing seems right for one, but also because sentiment and positioning have gotten so lopsided recently that a multi-week corrective episode is probably the only thing that will neutralize the picture a bit. How far down the euro goes over the next three days or so will determine whether my hunch is right. I say this because it is natural to expect the trend to try to re-assert itself after 4-5 up days, but if this effort is a meek one (say easily holds 1.2610) or there isn’t one at all then the bulls will become emboldened and this correction could quickly gather some steam a la the 3rd quarter of 2013.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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