Analys från DailyFX

Silver Price Bounce Nearly Finished?

Published

7 år ago

25 juli, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver price being helped by US dollar (for now), doesn’t matter more broadly
Bounce is within downward trend, waiting for momentum to turn
Target continues to be the 2003 trend-line

How will the Fed impact Precious Metals in Q3? Find out here!

Last week, when we last discussed silver this is what we had to say, “Looking at silver price action the feeling on this end is that it’s still corrective in nature and that we have yet to see the worst levels before a meaningful low can form.” From mid-April until now there is no denying the bearish backdrop to precious metals even though as of late they have been underpinned by a weaker US dollar. But the dollar hasn’t helped at all more broadly speaking, as the correlation over the past three months between precious metals and the buck has been positive. It’ll turn negative again at some point, perhaps soon, but let’s keep it simple and look at silver in a bubble…

The advance off this month’s low has been somewhat strong so far, but stronger bounces before turned out to be exactly just that – bounces. We’ve been watching levels and then price action around those levels for cues as to when the current bounce could begin to unravel again. A swing-low carved out last month was viewed as one area of potential resistance, silver sits just above it now. It put in a ‘doji-ish’ looking day yesterday, but not the most convincing of reversal candles, so we’ll want to see if selling interest from here accelerates and provide a high conviction turn in momentum. (Btw, speaking of candlesticks, join us on Thursday at 9:30 GMT for a discussion on candlesticks.)

If momentum doesn’t turn lower from around current levels, we’ll then look to the trend-line off the April peak and/or a swing-high which developed in late-June. Silver doesn’t necessarily need to turn lower, though, from a level of resistance, but it is preferred. Really we just need to see momentum in the current bounce start moving in reverse, giving us a better shot at having found the peak of the move.

The target remains at the 2003 trend-line roughly around 14.85. It’s a very long-term line of support so it should really be drawn with a thick crayon. Upon arrival at the trend-line we’ll be watching for signs of a possible low to operate off of from the long-side. But before we get ahead of ourselves focus begins on finding a spot to short the current bounce.

Heads up: Tomorrow, the FOMC will release its decision on interest rates and monetary policy statement. Given the nearly zero expectation of a rate hike, attention will be on the latter for indications as to what the Fed may want to do at the September meeting. Join Chief Strategist John Kicklighter for live coverage of the announcement.

Silver futures: Daily

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form