Analys från DailyFX

Silver Price on Reversal Watch, Gold Signals Possible End to Up-move

Published

7 år ago

2 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Gold trading around long-term trend-line, intermediate-term resistance too
Silver trying to put in a key reversal around trend-line, carve out lower high
US Dollar Index (DXY) at important long-term support zone

Find out in the Q3 Forecast what’s driving Gold Silver this quarter.

As we discussed in yesterday’s webinar, gold and silver prices are at important spots on their respective charts. We’ll start with gold and then move onto silver. Gold is trading around (a little above) the widely-watched 2011 trend-line. It’s an important line-in-the-sand, one which has been highly influential for over a year. As we’ve noted on numerous occasions a strong, convincing weekly close above the long-term threshold is needed to spur conviction from the long-side. At this point, in our book, a higher high above the April/June double-top at 1296 is needed to tilt the chart truly positive. That’s the broad lay of the land.

Gold: Weekly

Looking closer, gold is trying to turn lower from the underside of the December 2016 trend-line. Yesterday, price action resulted in a ‘doji’ daily candle with a fairly sizable range, indicating potential exhaustion (A candlestick formation we discussed last week).

Daily

For purposes of clarity, we’ll drill down one more time-frame to see when selling may pick up. On the 4-hr we can see the nice, neat channel gold has been travelling upwardly in. A break below the lower parallel will be our cue to look for increased selling pressure.

4-hr

Want to get involved in one of our upcoming live events? See the Webinar Calendar for details.

Silver doesn’t have a long-term threshold at hand like gold does, but still nevertheless it’s trading at an important spot, and depending on how the daily bar looks by the end of the day we could have the type of price action (key reversal bar) which signals the end of the run off last month’s low. Putting the rally into perspective, it’s occurred within the context of a downtrend marked by clear lower highs and lower lows. A turn lower soon could mark yet another lower high. The 2003 trend-line remains the target on another downdraft.

Silver: Daily

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is coming up on a very big zone of support extending back to 2015 (was big resistance back in 2004/05). The inverse correlation between precious metals and the dollar has been strong, and on that a big turn in the buck, as long as the relationship stays intact, could spur selling in precious metals.

US Dollar Index (DXY): Weekly

Heads up: NFP Friday is coming up. The consensus estimate is for the economy to have added 180k jobs last month followed by an increase of 222k in June. Any outsized deviation from expectations is almost certain to move markets.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form