Analys från DailyFX

Silver Price Plunging Towards 14-Year Trend-line

Published

7 år ago

10 juli, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver suffers sharp losses on ‘flash crash’ Thursday night, beaten down further on NFPs
December objective taken out, exposing 2003 trend-line
Likely to hold the long-term trend-line on initial test, how it responds will be key to outlook

What are viewed as key drivers of gold and silver in Q3? See our Quarterly Forecast here.

On Thursday, we were discussing tactical entries for taking advantage of further weakness in silver prices, and then the ‘flash crash’ during the Asia session took place, taking away any new low-risk entries. While the plunge was sharp, trades which were executed all the way down in the low-14s were broken on the Comex (futures exchange where silver trades). A new low for Friday’s session was established at 15.54, which was still a big move coming from over 16, but not completely out of line with price swings seen before in this high-beta precious metal. The U.S. jobs report actually did comparable damage to what was experienced as a result of the ‘flash crash’. After removing the extreme prints from the night before, the ~60 cent move lower following NFPs was just as big.

The first objective we’ve been targeting is the December low, which was broken following the monthly jobs report. We’re now closing in on a very significant trend-line dating back just over 14 years. The 2003 trend-line runs under lows created in 2008 and 2015, extending higher to around 14.80. The thinking on this end is that we will see an initial test hold and the trend-line will provide a relief bounce at the least if not forge a big-picture low. In this scenario, how the bounce unfolds will be the key to determining whether a sustainable low has been forged or not.

It’s all about the weekly (or even monthly) closing bar, not daily. Given the long-term nature of the trend-line, the daily chart is too short of a time-frame to provide validation on either a hold or break of the important threshold. Silver could drop through the trend-line on an intra-week basis, but recover and close the week back above the trend-line and it will be considered a successful hold. (Not long ago we had the ‘daily versus weekly closing bar’ scenario play out in gold at the 2011 down-trend line.) There are levels of minor importance from early 2016 in near confluence with the trend-line in the 14.61/78 area. Should silver hold and turn higher the first point of near-term resistance will be the December low at 15.67. If the trend-line and horizontal support fail to provide support, whether it’s now or later, the 2015 low at 13.62 will become exposed.

Silver Futures: Weekly

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form