Analys från DailyFX

Silver Price Tech Outlook: Two Lines, Gold, and the Dollar

Published

8 år ago

28 april, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver price oversold, testing backside of July trend-line
A bounce will quickly bring the recently broken December trend-line into play
Can the US dollar provide some help for precious metals?

Is the precious metals rally over? See what’s driving the market!

On Wednesday, when we last looked at silver price action we said our bias was largely hinging on how gold was reacting from the 2011 trend-line, and then it’s subsequent response to nearby support. Gold is holding support around the 1260 mark, while silver on the other hand broke support by way of the December trend-line.

The next level of potential support we were turning to on a break of the multi-month trend-line was the backside of the July to current trend-line. Silver hit it yesterday. So far today, we are seeing buyers step in and keep it supported. The July t-line isn’t viewed as the strongest form of support, but if it can hold a bid there then it will strengthen its presence. With a little more to the upside it won’t be long, though, before we could see silver make its first attempt to recapture the December trend-line. That could be problematic.

Silver is oversold after declining for nearly two weeks straight, a bounce was due. How much steam it can gain from here will be telling as to whether it’s simply an oversold bounce, or the beginning of a stronger push higher. A recapture of the December trend-line is the first challenge. A touch and turn lower might mean silver wants to continue to sink towards 16.84.

Silver: Daily

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The US dollar has been supportive for higher prices, but it hasn’t mattered to the precious metals complex. The US Dollar Index (DXY) isn’t looking very healthy, and as we discussed in this morning’s webinar (sign up here for the next session), a strong push lower in the dollar might help give gold and silver the needed boost to rally. But we aren’t putting a lot of stock right now in that relationship given it isn’t a strong one. We’ll continue to focus on those two markets separately until clarity in the correlation comes back into focus.

US Dollar Index (DXY): Daily

Created with TradingView

For now, silver is caught between two lines and how it responds to either in the coming days could be the tell as to whether to expect a recovery to gain traction, or to start thinking about the next downside support level at 16.84 as the next stopping point.

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form