Analys från DailyFX
Silver Prices: Broke and Retests Familiar Level
What’s inside:
- Support levels broken, looking to 19.20 as resistance in short-run
- Clarity on daily time-frame is lacking, keeping to intra-day charts
- With a little more time between levels a trade could evolve
In Thursday’s commentary we noted several levels of support in silver prices, given it had hurdled those levels as resistance in the days prior. The ‘old resistance becomes new support’ rule (and vice versa) is an old one, and over the long-haul a good one. But like anything pertaining to the analysis of markets there are no absolutes, only good rules (and bad) which if emphasized lead to a tradeable edge.
Silver didn’t hold onto those support levels. Each of the short-term levels were quickly broken, even including the most important level of them all at 19.20. Today’s extended rebound from yesterday is thus far finding difficulties in crossing back over the 19.20 area (old support, new resistance). We will use the 19.20 area as resistance until silver clearly crosses back over.
There is minor trend-line support running off the 8/28 low. Some wiggle between the two levels could go some ways toward helping find a good trade in the not-too-distance future.
Clarity when looking back over the past couple of months has been diminished to short periods of time visible on the intra-day time-frames. The daily chart is offering little from which to operate off of at this time. The long-term support zone in the 18s has kept a floor in silver so far, but finding a good sustainable directional play has not been easy. With that in mind, we will continue to focus more on the intra-day time-frames until clarity presents itself.
Follow trader sentiment in real-time via FXCM’s SSI Indicator.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.
He can be emailed at probinson@fxcm.com with any questions or comments.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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