Analys från DailyFX

Silver Prices Holding Support Ahead of US Election

Published

9 år ago

7 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver prices down, dollar up on FBI clearing Clinton
Risky proposition to establish positions ahead of tomorrow’s election, even if set-up is appealing
Will revisit once the election has passed

On Friday, we described silver prices as playing a game of ping pong between support and resistance. Which side will win out? So far, silver has managed to hold on to a majority of its recent gains coming out of the multi-week triangle formation, which is constructive but not yet conclusive.

The problem with any near-term set-up– the U.S. presidential election is making it a risky proposition to establish positions beyond a day-trade until we find out who wins and how market participants respond. There have been a few twists and turns recently, with another one coming yesterday when the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton of any crimes in how she handled her email. This came a little over a week after the bureau said it was looking further into the matter since saying there was no criminal wrongdoing back in July. The drama put markets on edge, silver mostly benefiting from it as the US dollar weakened materially over the past week+.

Today, the dollar is up on the Clinton news, putting pressure on precious metals. Silver continues to hold the 18 level around the recaptured January trend-line. We view this as important if silver is to continue its push higher out of the October triangle. The top of the triangle in the 17.70s is our final level of support should 18 not hold. A fall below the 17.70s and the trend lower dating back to July will likely reassert itself.

In the process of silver working mostly sideways in the past few days, price action, as seen on the intra-day time-frame, is working on forming a short-term triangle. It’s not fully developed yet, but it’s getting close. The trigger will be untimely, though, with the election beginning less than 24 hours from now. So, with that in mind, we will let it go and come back after the initial reaction to election results and see where we are. If this were an event of far less significance (i.e. NFPs, FOMC, etc.) we wouldn’t be so cautious in establishing a position if our trade criteria were met, but from where we sit the risk/reward is not worth it at this time.

Silver: Daily

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Join me on Wednesday at 9 GMTas we sort out price action following the election results.

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form