Analys från DailyFX
Silver Prices: Searching for Direction, Short-term Chart on Radar
What’s inside:
- Silver prices remain frustratingly choppy, but calm yourself a move will emerge
- But could soon find a resolution
- Intra-day time-frames in focus with daily chart lacking any real clarity
Silver continues the sideways chop, and from a trading standpoint with this being the case there has been little price action to take a bite out of. It can make for frustrating trading, so the best thing to do is to make what is often times the best trade – no trade. But this doesn’t mean stop watching and let your guard down, because these sideways chops do turn into extended moves at some point.
Friday, it was noted that the price action in silver was ‘shape-shifting’; that is to say it has been taking on different patterns but never convincingly breaking any of them. Triangles/wedges and even an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern showed themselves, but none came to the point of execution.
The only pattern which has remained a constant is the downward sloping channel visible on the intra-day time-frames (1 to 4-hr chart). The gradual decline of the channel, given the prevailing upward trend prior to this period of daily chop, suggests the channel will resolve itself to the upside. But, until it breaks above the upper parallel we cannot make that assumption just yet; silver could just continue to slowly drift lower within the confines of the channel. And even if the channel is broken, a broader daily range could be continuing itself. With that said, we need to be nimble with any action taken at this time.
The most significant areas of support and resistance within the range is ~19.45/21 and 20.66/21.11, respectively.
Silver (XAGUSD) 2-hr
What will break silver free? Your guess is as good as ours. There may not be a single catalyst which does so, and as always it is possible more buyers appear than sellers or vice versa. Markets don’t need an easily visible reason to move.
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.
You can email him directly at probinson@fxcm.com with any questions or comments.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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