Analys från DailyFX

Silver Prices Setting Up to Visit Long-term Trend-line

Published

8 år ago

28 december, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver prices finding limited buying pressure around key support zone
Risk of moving below 15 to 2003 trend-line increasing
Trends which ended 2016 look set to continue in the very beginning of 2017

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Over a week ago, when we looked at silver prices we said they were at risk of falling into an air pocket between the ~16/15.80 and 14.79/50 zones. On that Tuesday, though, silver fell as low at 15.64 before reversing to close back above 16, negating a strong bearish break. It was only a one-off bullish reversal event as silver has since struggled to gain any traction.

The longer silver struggles around the15.80/16 area, the more likely it is to find itself carrying lower and potentially much lower in short order. One of the themes we are focusing on as 2017 quickly nears, is for the trends which have held up into year-end to gain momentum again in early January. Higher US dollar, lower precious metals, and higher stocks. We’re at a time of the year/month where we shouldn’t expect much out of the markets, but once the calendar flips to January that sentiment changes with full market participation returning.

Below 15.64, silver may find some support on the bottom-side trend-line running lower from the October low, but really good support doesn’t arrive until 14.79/50, a zone running back to December 2015. Additionally, and more importantly, there lies a long-term trend-line closer to 14.50 rising up from a low in 2003 beneath the 2008 and 2015 lows. Should we get to that point we may be inclined to turn from bear to bull quickly should price action warrant the switch in bias.

The top-side trend-line from the November peak is intersecting with the bottom-side October trend-line, forming a descending wedge. The resulting break could be upward, but for now trend strength and lack of buying around a key area of support lends toward seeing more losses, instead.

Silver: Daily (Monthly)

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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