Analys från DailyFX

Silver Prices: Turn Lower Furthering Wedge Pattern

Published

9 år ago

26 september, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver prices decline of trend-line resistance
Further convergence in price action could lead to explosive move in October
Support in the mid to lower 18s is the key to keeping silver macro-bullish, short-term leaves opportunities only for those looking for ‘quick-hitters’

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Last Thursday, when we last took a look at silver prices we noted it was trading at trend-line resistance off the July spike high, and that for now it would act as resistance until it was able to clear above. Silver attempted to push above the trend-line, but found sellers, putting in a small bearish reversal day. This gave would-be shorts a reason to look for the metal to turn back lower into the ongoing contraction in price action between rising the trend-line off the late-August lows above key long-term support (back to 2013) and the top-side trend-line.

At this juncture, with silver trading within the two converging lines there isn’t a whole lot to take away from the current technical structure for those looking to establish a position with intentions beyond the very near-term. Once free from congestion a sustainable move is likely to ensue.

As long as the lower trend-line and support in the mid-18s holds, then the period in recent weeks looks constructive within the uptrend off the December lows. Further contraction in the range could soon lead to an explosive breakout as we head into October.

Should buyers show up prior to the end of a fully developed triangle and push silver beyond the upper trend-line, then we will turn aggressively bullish. This will likely coincide with gold breaking out of a developing bull-flag, and, more importantly, above the 2011 trend-line we discussed last week. (For more on the macro outlook for gold and silver, check out this commentary.)

A drop lower will need to see silver hold onto the trend-line in place since late August, and at worst hold the lower end of long-term support in the mid to lower 18s. A break below those support levels will begin to significantly diminish the bulls’ case, and leave the December to current trend-line as the last line of defense for buyers.

For now, scalps and quick-flips will be the best approach from where we sit until silver can make a break for it from the developing wedge.

Silver Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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