Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Short-term Trading Levels

Published

9 år ago

29 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The SP 500 sells off from resistance, looking to support levels
The Nasdaq 100 takes a hit below support, Aamzon and Google reported earnings
U.S. GDP/Personal Consumption data due out at 12:30 GMT, could be chart altering

SP 500

Yesterday, shortly off the open the SP 500 turned sharply lower from the staunch resistance zone we had penciled in at 2146/50 (2147 was the day high). This quickly brought into play support by way of a trend-line off the 10/13 low, as well as a lower parallel running back to the 10/17 swing low. The market closed just beneath these nearly intersecting levels of support, which puts the area right around 2130 into focus. A clean break of 2130 clears a path to 2124 (a lower parallel also lies in this area) and then the key daily swing low at 2115.

If support levels hold, we’ll turn our attention towards a minor trend-line starting from Monday and then the 2146/48 area where lies horizontal resistance and the trend-line off the 10/10 swing high. Above key resistance, 2155 and the major trend-line off the 9/7 peak come into view.

SP 500: Hourly

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Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 dropped below the lower parallel of the channel rising up from the 10/13 swing low, and in the process, it also took out important horizontal support dating back to the beginning of the month. This area in the 4342/48 vicinity is now viewed as a fairly substantial zone of resistance should the market rally to that point. The descending parallels off Monday’s high will become a factor as well, but how they do so will depend on where the market opens. The lower parallel is viewed as a minor form of support and a more substantial area of resistance at the upper parallel given the short-term trend is pointed lower.

Support currently comes in at the trend-line rising up from the 9/12 swing low. Amazon (AMZN) reported earnings right after yesterday’s closing bell, selling off sharply (-5% in early pre-market this morning) and also hitting the Nasdaq futures by about 25 handles in the process from the 20:00 GMT cash close to the 20:15 close in futures. Google (GOOG/GOOGL) beat on earnings, but only saw a modest pop (higher by a little more than 1% in pre-market). So, there will likely be a gap towards the 9/12 trend-line once the cash session opens, barring a jump on U.S. data. A break below the 9/12 trend-line would be meaningful, bringing into play the 10/20 swing low at 4806, then ~4790, and finally 4760 with aggressive selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100: Hourly

Created with Tradingview

At this time, the SPs are trading higher by 3.5 while the Nasdaq futures are up 4.5 from the 20:15 GMT futures close. At 12:30, we have GDP and Personal Consumption figures; consensus estimates are for annualized growth rates of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. Depending on the outcome, the market could open beyond levels outlined. We’ll adjust accordingly (i.e. an open below support will turn former support into new resistance and vice versa).

Check out our Q4 Forecasts and Trading Guides.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form