Analys från DailyFX
S&P 500 Consolidating or Topping?
What’s inside:
- SP broke the November slope, but is retesting it now
- Support down near 2416 and November trend-line needs to hold to keep in consolidation mode
- If we see a break of 2416, then 2404 expect downward momentum to kick in as near-term top is confirmed
How do you turn U.S. stock market news into a trading plan? See our guide here!
In this week’s SP 500 forecast, we discussed support by way of the November slope as holding on by a thread, and ultimately important for the market to turn higher from if it is to keep from experiencing a drop. Monday the market tried to turn higher from support but failed to find the buyers needed to push it firmly higher. The intra-day reversal to start the week led to Tuesday’s sell-off, which cracked the November slope and took the market down near the 2416 mark we have penciled in as support; the low came in at the 6/15 low a shade under 2419.
Yesterday’s pop erased the drop, but can it sustain? It will take a little more time to determine whether the SP is undergoing a period of healthy consolidation or putting in a distribution top (where buyers become exhausted before a down-move ensues). In either event, the eventual outcome should become clearer soon.
The erasing of yesterday’s drop puts the market at an immediate retest of the November slope, so in the near-term if it can’t reclaim this line of resistance and move back to the top of the range (towards record highs), then risk skews back towards seeing the 2019/16 vicinity tested again, which will also result in a tag of the November trend-line. On a closing basis, a drop into support will need to hold to continue the notion that we are seeing a period of consolidation. (At this time, the thinking is consolidation…) A decline below noted support will shift focus lower as the range this month is validated as a topping process. Taking out 2404 and the November trend-line would open up a path towards the May low at 2352.
SP 500: Daily
Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Crude oil comment: US inventories remain well below averages despite yesterday’s build
- China is turning the corner and oil sentiment will likely turn with it
- Crude oil comment: Europe’s largest oil field halted – driving prices higher
- Crude oil comment: Mixed U.S. data skews bearish – prices respond accordingly
- Crude oil comment: Fundamentals back in focus, with OPEC+ strategy crucial for price direction
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke