Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500: Election Volatility and Short-term Trading Levels

Published

9 år ago

31 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Be on the watch for more sudden moves like Friday’s now that election uncertainty has heightened
Lines and levels of influence identified in choppy trading environment
Continuing to look for fades off levels once momentum turns

Friday morning brought a decent amount of volatility to start the day, especially in the Nasdaq 100 after two of the index’s giants – Google Amazon – reported quarterly earnings the evening before. As we headed into the afternoon it looked as though volatility might fizzle out to end the week; that is until news hit the wires that the Hillary Clinton email investigation was all but dead, thus stirring up significant uncertainty regarding the Presidential election on November 8.

Until we move past the election, we need to be on our toes as it’s likely there will be more headlines to come which could cause sudden, sharp price swings. This means expect the unexpected more-so than usual and be sure to have an even tighter grip on risk.

It also means, especially given the already choppy trading environment, to expect more choppy, two-way trade, but with some bigger swings possibly thrown in. This type of market is best approached from the standpoint of a ‘fade-trader’, looking for times when momentum stalls at support or resistance and then taking the other side.

Levels and lines that matter: Friday’s move pushed the SP 500 below the 2130 area we had penciled in as support. The short-term channel structure off the 10/24 high is keeping price pointed lower. For resistance, we will look to 2130ish and then the top-side of the 10/24 channel, broken trend-line off the 10/13 low, and broken lower parallel off the 10/17 swing low. All three lines are in the 2135/38 vicinity. Beyond there the trend-line off the 10/10 pivot and the 2146/48 zone.

On the downside, the Friday low at 2119 and lower parallel, to a lesser degree, first show up. Below 2119, the important 2115 swing low created on 10/13 will become a factor. Beyond that important low things become interesting with room to run…

Pre-market futures are near unchanged at this time, but should the market open up or below notations then those levels/lines could flip-flop their signficance (i.e. – old support becomes new resistance, vice versa.)

SP 500: 60-min

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form